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REMARKS AT THE SHELTER AFRIQUE 2023 42ND AGM AT THE ROUNDTABLE SESSION OF AFRICAN MINISTERS WITH THE THEME “THE DATA QUESTION – WHICH ARE THE REAL NUMBERS? HARMONIZATION OF HOUSING MARKET DATA IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA”
I would like to start my intervention by acknowledging the importance of Data as a critical development and planning tool.
The use of data for planning and decision making by those with the requisite skills, capacity and rigour can lead to predictable, orderly and measurable results.
But there are caveats.
The data must be reliable. It must be collected or gathered from verifiable sources. Its integrity must be unimpeachable.
Data can be dangerous in the hands of the unskilled. I can only equate the degree of danger to leaving nuclear weapons deployment codes in the hands of an unstable person.
It puts the entire planet in peril.
This is why I am delighted to have a speaking opportunity at this most important roundtable about the data question in the Housing market in Sub-Saharan Africa.
A pleasant news in this regard is to inform you that Nigeria will very shortly be conducting a Housing and population census across the country, and with it, we hope to gather data about our people’s housing needs and use this to plan and implement policies, programmes and projects to address any verified needs.
But while this is still in the offing, my most important message to this session is this:
“Africans should stop binging on deficits.”
I say this because all too often, we seem too eager to accept, own and propagate the worst narratives about our countries and our continent, based on data whose sources or integrity are unproven.
At one time we were referred to as the “Dark Continent,” yet our human and material resources built and are sustaining some of the most prosperous societies on earth.
But we never pushed back on the inhuman economic model that created such inequality.
Instead, we seemed too anxious to please and deploy a mindset of surrender and pity.
Thankfully, that mindset is changing, and I daresay not quickly enough.
And it is in this context that I wish to address the question of housing data.
In my tenure of office as Lagos State Governor, between 2012-2015 we delivered 200 units of houses to members of the public every month, over a three-year period.
At the same time other Governors launched and successfully executed housing projects across most of our 36 states, and so did members of the private sector.
Regrettably, it seemed that nobody was ready to take account of the delivery of even 1 (ONE) unit of housing.
There was a fixation and a binge on a supposed 17 million housing deficit; and I will say a few things about that number shortly.
The point I am making here, which needs to be repeated is that by logical and accountable use of data, if there was a need of 17 million and 1 unit was provided, one would expect that the need would reduce by 1 (ONE).
Unfortunately, that was not the case. In a seeming desperation to race to the bottom, binge on the deficit and perhaps unleash a “Nuclear War on Housing” the “deficit” grew to 19 million, later to 22 million and just a few days ago to 28 million according to announcers who cannot point to a source.
All these figures without a basis.
Of course, I took the view that as Housing Minister, my success depended on working with credible data.
So I went in search of the data.
Everybody who had asserted the deficit of 17 million that I asked about the source only pointed me further ahead, almost like the search for a house without an address.
Nobody knew where it came from, but they all loved it and were ready to assert it. Indeed, I think they might have thought that something was wrong with me about finding out the truth.
Happily, the source of the “data” of a housing deficit of 17 million did not prove eternally elusive. I eventually found where it came from.
It was in the PREFACE to the 2012 National Housing Policy signed by the Minister then in charge of the Ministry of Housing, 3 (THREE) years before I took office.
I put a telephone call through to the Minister, who admitted to the preface but said it was prepared by aides and the pressure of work did not allow sufficient vetting.
Needless to say, the Minister confirmed that the Data has no verifiable basis. Therefore, I say to those who still choose to live by it, I wish them well on a journey to the unknown from an unknown destination.
To right-thinking and well-meaning people, I urge you to sensibly disown this baseless data and invite you to let us work together like rational people, using what we know while we await the results of the National Housing and Population Census for 2023.
And to the question what do we know, I say that the last time I checked with our National Bureau of Statistics, (admittedly a few years ago), there was a reliable household survey of about 35 million households in Nigeria; a household representing one family unit.
If we set that nebulous figure of 17 million housing deficit against the verifiable household data of 35 million Households, it would suggest that almost half of the population is in deficit of housing.
I leave you all to square that circle; but my view is that this offends logic and what we know.
Is there a housing deficit?
Of course, there is. I am the first to admit it.
How should we approach it?
My view is again to use what is proven, which is that globally, more people are moving towards cities in the last 50 years than at any time before in our human existence; in a trend now defined as rapid urbanization.
We also know from economic principles that when there is an increased demand for a service, commodity or product without corresponding supply, there will be shortages and price increases. This is also verifiable.
Using these verifiable principles, I submit that the housing deficit in Nigeria and most parts of the continent and the world is more pronounced in urban centres than in rural areas.
While awaiting reliable census data, my approach has been to concentrate on housing supply and construction activities in the urban centres of our states, even as I am mindful of the existence of empty houses in the same urban centres.
I know that many of those struggling for accommodation in the cities have left one form of shelter unused or under utilized in our rural areas.
I also know that housing provision must look seriously at the rental side, while trying to increase ownership.
I know that a lot more needs to be done to free up any obstacles that prevent people from renting or acquiring many empty houses that we see in our urban centres.
Distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen, my thoughts are not perfect and they may not provide all the answers, but they represent my convictions about how to approach data use in solving our problems.
I hope our team of experts will move the conversation significantly forward; as I believe that we cannot afford to be less than most diligent in the execution of the 2023 National Housing and Population Census.
It should tell us many things if conducted diligently.
Thank you for listening.
Babatunde Raji Fashola, SAN
Honourable Minister of Works and Housing
