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Some of the reactions that trailed President Muhammadu Buhari’s endorsement of Victor Giadom as the Acting National Chairman of the APC didn’t show that a majority of the people understood what happened or were able to interpret the intrigues properly.
But let’s get to it quickly. Recall that on Monday, the president met with some governors of the APC. That was where the foundation for what happened today and those that are yet to come, was laid.
Although the Ekiti State Governor, Dr. Kayode Fayemi, who is convinced about the need for change and spearheading it, was not at the meeting for factors said to be beyond his control, those in attendance were Governors Abubakar Bagudu (Kebbi), Simon Lalong (Plateau), Badaru Abubakar (Jigawa) and some select stakeholders of the party.
Also, don’t forget the standing of the attendee governors in the current power equation. While Fayemi is the Chairman of the NGF, Bagudu is the Chairman of the APC Governors Forum and of course, Lalong is the Chairman of the Northern Governors Forum. Jigawa’s Badaru is Buhari’s man and his eyes at the meeting.
The agenda of the meeting was simple with a three-point proposal. First, the governors, representing other stakeholders, demanded the convocation of NEC, the dissolution of the NWC and the announcement of a convention committee preparatory to the mid-term convention. Those were contained in their joint proposal to the president as the Party Leader.
Now, if adopted, the implication is that it might be possible to withdraw the cases from court and allow Oshiomhole sign the INEC papers as his valedictory assignment. Otherwise, everything being done, including the meeting with Buhari would end up an exercise in futility a la Rivers and Zamfara examples.
Other stakeholders too had their views on the matter. For example, the Senate President, Ahmad Lawan, had also proposed the first and second options at his meeting with the president, meaning the governors were not the only ones thinking in that direction. The president is therefore expected to put all of them together and as the leader, give a direction.
But preempting Oshiomhole and his backers, they were most likely to refuse the proposal and that would have taken the party back to Square one hence Buhari’s insidious intervention, which shocked many, including his fans, when he sided with the Giadom faction of the party.
With this development and from all indications, tomorrow’s NEC may likely approve all that’s contained in the governors’ proposal, the first of which has already been granted – the convocation of NEC. Then, there’s likely going to be the dissolution of the NWC as well as the announcement of a convention committee preparatory to the mid-term convention as approved by many others.
Thus, all those protesting Buhari’s position had better buckle up and be at tomorrow’s NEC otherwise, they’ll never get to read all that is going to take place at the meeting.
But the implication of this is that the governors are not only having their ways now, they are also gradually taking back the party, albeit with tact, from those believed to have ‘hijacked’ it.
So, how is this going to affect Edo State’s political debacle? You may be seen as having a clearer understanding of the situation if you admit that the crisis in the state is not so much about Governor Godwin Obaseki but Oshiomhole. Yes, they are colleague governors but the others truly and honestly do not give a hoot about how Obaseki handles his challenges as much as they want to see the back of Oshiomhole as APC chair.
Therefore, with Oshiomhole now out of the equation and the party back in the hands of the governors, Obaseki might as well rethink his governorship bid, because since the aggrieved governors’ real challenge has been taken care of, they would be unable to justify working against their own party in the September 19 election in Edo State.
And if you’re wondering what might happen to Pastor Ize-Iyamu’s candidacy especially, when Giadom, who is now effectively in charge with a presidential backing, had repeatedly described the process that produced him as null and void, wait for it. The same Giadom leadership, in view of the current development, may ratify his candidacy, more so that it was seamless.
It is also important you don’t forget the impression of Obaseki expressed by Buhari during a meeting he had with Oshiomhole over a week ago, where he was alleged to have insinuated good riddance. Don’t also forget that Buhari, though may not be hands-on, he would never side with an opposition against his own party. Example of that abound.
In the final analysis and with the current state of play, what is deducible from all of these is that Oshiomhole is gone for good, sadly, unceremoniously. Two, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu’s presidential bid might have suffered a major but temporary setback. Three, the APC governors now have the party back in their grip, including the ears of the president. Four, APC may retain Edo with Ize-Iyamu as its candidate.
Suffice it to say, however, that Oshiomhole is still in court, precisely at the Supreme Court, the outcome of which could further unsettle all of these extrapolations as they currently stand.
