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Quite a few of my friends are rooting for Oby, and for good reasons too. Very intelligent. Dogged. Experienced. Committed and passionate. No lack of positive adjectives. And for these reasons they insist she’s the right horse to back for 2019.
And I have had direct and first hand experience engaging Oby. A few years ago, a church organised a programme where both of us shared the platform as speakers on socio political issues. I was impressed, if sometimes i found her views rather radical.
And I say my friends and perhaps even Oby in this Presidential bid miss a key issue in global and NIGERIAN politics. Oby has provided 50% of reasons why she may make a good Presidential candidate. I have even gone through her policy document for the Presidency. Being a policy wonk, the document is sound.
But my friends and her ardent supporters miss some key issues. Oby has met just 50% of the criteria: a solid credential; possibly the most solid of all the candidates. But they have not said anything about her preparedness to be a politician. And I keep asking:
• Does she have a structure, a sine qua non for any serious political activity at that level.
• Is she represented at wards, local governments, states etc all over NIGERIA? Is she seriously organized and running a disciplined army?
• Does she have committed foot soldiers, those who really matter when preparing for elections and managing voters and mobilization?
• Critically, is she funded sufficiently? All over the world, western type politics such as we run is oiled by huge funding. Does she have a war chest?
The point I am making is while Oby is a celebrated advocate and is qualified in terms of experience etc, it takes more to run a credible campaign and win elections. Elections are not won because you make fine speeches and picket the Villa because of the missing girls. Elections are won by a combination of many other factors, some of which I listed.
And she should learn from Buhari. Three or four attempts running on the strength of his personality and the theme of Integrity didn’t deliver the Villa. Until Baba teamed up with politicians like Jagaban who helped put the structure etc in place. This is the reality. A strong social advocate does not necessarily translate into an astute politician and votes catcher; Oby must first make the transition happen.
If she is determined and serious, now is the time to begin to mobilize and do these things. It’s going to be tough. Rugged. Demanding. Painstaking. Lots of grit. And she should perish the idea of 2019. She may record some presence, but nothing significant will come out of it.
