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It’s going to be a very very close race!
In every elections there is a momentum and the momentum is like a surge, an increase in the push towards victory! The two main factors in a momentum is sustainance and time! The two pertinent question now is can Atiku sustain the current momentum that has just started and 2 is there enough time to drastically reduce the purported standing army of voters Buhari has so much so that the gap Buhari use to win in 2015 goes into the negative !?
No doubt the momentum for now has suddenly shifted to Atiku! And all of a sudden things has all gone a bit quiet on the Buhari front! But make no mistake In the Buhari camp there are seasoned strategist! People who strategised to get Buhari into power in the first case! And this time they are the ones in power and they are desperate! Losing power after just 4 years cannot be ever good enough for them!
More sinister is the pattern that has been used by the hawks among them! In prior state elections it has been the usage of coercion and inec! However this time it may be much more difficult to do this! In the first case the theatre of operation is the whole country so it will be difficult to confine the use of coercion! 2 Inec will be under serious focus mainly from the international community! And unless Inec wants the country to go through serious problems they must not get involved in any deleting, and falsification of results to favour the ruling party for if this is obvious the international community will refuse to recognise the results and by extension refuse to recognise the govt!
This will spell doom for an already ailing economy! This was the same position the Jonathan administration was in before his elections when even the American president Barrack Obama had to address the country on the elections! Don’t be surprised if the international community makes a similar statement before these elections!
They will definitely extract an agreement from Buhari that if he loses the elections he will agree to go! And we all know who will make sure the international community extracts that promise! He is currently ensuring that!
They say time is of essence! We are approximately 3 months from the elections There is little time for the Atiku camp to begin to chip away at Buharis standing votes! Luckily for the pdp Atiku is a northerner! The real ground war is in the north as per numbers!
The concentration and battle ground in this elections is in the north and the southwest!
To cut down the advantage and disadvantaged of time, the intensity and speed of the Atiku campaign must start now! Basking in the euphoria of the Atiku/Obi ticket should be very momentary the work should start ‘like yesterday ” The Buhari team ‘will rather die than lay down and die” (what a juxtaposition! )
The requirement of the 25 percent spread must be a big bother for the Buhari team! And this is where INEC must be watched like a hawk! So far for me personally they cannot be trusted! It is that spread that may be key and may lead to a runoff!!
In Osun I did predict a runoff! Here again there is a high possibility that the presidential elections may lead to a runoff for I really don’t see Buhari meeting that spread requirements!!
Atiku on the other hand will meet that spread! He has more national appeal but will he have a higher number of total votes than Buhari! ?
So while Buhari has to work on spread Atiku needs to work on the number of total votes ! And the clock keeps ticking for both of them!
like I quipped it’s shaping up to be the ” mother of all campaigns ” Sai baba vs the Atikulator!
Cutting down Buharis votes is easier to do in the south than the north ! It is more so easier now with the nomination of Peter Obi as VP!
Igbo people are everywhere particularly in the southwest and they are probably one of the most aware people when it comes to voting! They will come out to vote in numbers anywhere they are! In the southwest it will be a keenly fought battle! We remain in the southwest the most de -tribalised when it comes to political awareness the mere fact that a Yoruba man has not been picked as VP may not be that much of a factor as initially thought from the initial feelers coming from the southwest ! Those that dislike Buhari will continue to do so and vote against him !
The south generally is more prone to “Atikulate ” In the south we like change not only as a slogan but in the real sense! We are more impatient! Buhari is a more of a disappointment in the south than in the north !
In the north they are slower to switch! They still see Buhari as a father at the ground zero level! although the middle and upper class now have serious doubts about his abilities and his insular nature! has not helped To them Atiku is more open and accessible and affords them the opportunity to be more buoyant! A lot of them have more than one wife. How do they continue to cater for their hajj trips with their family and all the trappings that comes with their lifestyle at the rate Buhari and the economy is going ?All they hear is sacrifice sacrifice sacrifice while the families of those in power including Buhari himself are alright very much so and do not seem to join the call to sacrifice !
Buhari can afford the personal sacrifice save for his medical attention that’s understandable “everyone wants to go to heaven but nobody wants to die ” he is ailing and closer to the maker by virtue of his age !
Atiku for now represent a revived hope! A true Nigerian willing to take our country back ! Well accepted by the generality of Nigerians a pleasant man ! It is translating these qualities to votes that is the task ahead !
Buhari already has a head start but this head start is dwindling by the minute ! And now it has the potential of his votes dwindling to” a too close to call ” zone come election time !
In a free and fair elections The Buhari camp must be very fidgety as the cry now in town is
Atiku is coming!
for now it’s all about the Atikulator!!
Indeed 24 hours is a long time in politics !
yet sometimes it may not be long enough !
Another strange juxtaposition !!
