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A few hours ago, the Independent National Electoral Commission declared the Osun State Governorship elections inconclusive. This bold action has triggered all manners of verbal umbrage against the elections Umpire but particularly,the Head of INEC, Professor Mahmood Yakubu.
Conspiracy theorists have latched upon this action to vent their anger on a man whose only “sin” was that he was appointed by the current president. But before delving into the Incredulity of judging a man’s character and competence for job through the lenses of his appointing authority, let us dispassionately examine today’s action by the EMB and try to anchor its legality or otherwise against the provisions of the statutes that guard elections in our land.
First, the Constitution and the Electoral Act made it mandatory on INEC to conduct free, fair and credible elections. To achieve this, the voter is key. His/her vote must count. Protecting the sanctity of the vote is crucial.
The entire electoral legal framework is intended to achieve this objective. Responsibilities are assigned, processes and procedures defined and sanctions prescribed all with the intention of achieving that objective.
Specifically Section 153 of the Electoral Act 2010 (as amended) empowers the Commission, in pursuit of the provisions of the Act, to “issue regulations, guidelines, or manuals for the purpose of giving affect to the provisions of this Act and for its administration thereof”.
Accordingly, INEC has made guidelines and regulations to protect the sanctity of the vote in instances where the processes are disrupted to disenfranchise voters. It is common knowledge that politicians have hijacked ballot papers, chased away voters and disrupted processes and procedures in order to gain unfair advantage. That is why INEC formulated guidelines and regulations to the effect that where voters are disenfranchised on account of someone’s disruptive action, INEC gives such voters another opportunity to vote where their number will make a difference to the outcome of the election.
The Commission has been applying this regulation in several elections. So there is nothing new here.
This was applied in Governorship elections in Imo (2011 and 2015), Anambra (2013), Taraba (2015), Kogi, Bayelsa (2015) etc.
Let us take a look at examples of these inconclusive elections.
Case Number (1)
IMO GUBER ELECTIONS 2015
Okorocha( APC) —-385,671
Ihedioha( PDP) ——-306,142
Margin———79,529
Cancelled votes——-144,715
From the above, it is evident that the margin or victory was lower than the cancelled votes, a number that is enough to alter the balance. The Commission under Professor Attahiru Jega did the needful and promptly declared the elections inconclusive.
Take note that my party, the ruling party (PDP) then hailed the decision and applauded the decision of the INEC, calling it a “patriotic and sound decision “. Of course, APGA kicked against it. A re-run election was scheduled which APGA won.
Recall that a similar situation had happened in 2011 in the same IMO between Okorocha and Ikedi Ohakim where INEC had declared the elections inconclusive because elections did not take place in some wards.
Case Number (2)
ANAMBRA SENATORIAL ELECTION 2011
Dora Akunyili( APGA) ——-66,273
Chris Ngige ( ACN) ——65,576
Margin —697
INEC declared the elections inconclusive because elections did not take place in some wards with a voting population that was higher than the margin of victory.
Case Number (3)
KOGI GUBER ELECTION 2015
Abubakar Audu( APC) —-240,867
Wada Idris ( PDP) —199,514
Margin —————41,353
Cancelled votes ———49,953
Again, the margin here was less than the cancellations and was rightly declared inconclusive by Professor Mahmood Yakubu led INEC.
The point to note here was that the APC was by this time the ruling party and clearly had a huge lead but Yakubu still refused to budge under pressure by the ruling party to announce it as winner. My party the PDP applauded it.
CASE NUMBER (4)
BAYELSA GUBER ELECTIONS 2015
Dickson ( PDP) ——-105,748
Sylva ( APC)——72,594
Margin ——-33,154
In the case of Bayelsa, a contraption of an election had taken place in Southern Ijaw which had Sylva winning the entire 120,000 votes in that area, but this much maligned Yakubu refused to accept it, declared it inconclusive and ordered a re-run for the number of registered voters were clearly more than the margin of victory. The PDP received this news well and celebrated it.
CASE NUMBER (5)
ANAMBRA GUBER ELECTION 2013
Obiano ( APGA) —174,710
Tony Nwoye ( PDP) —-94,956
Margin——-79,754
Cancelled votes——-113,113
Again the Commission under Jega declared it inconclusive and the PDP celebrated it as a bold move.
I have taken time to outline these numbers to show that even where the margins were wide, and when logic will suggest that the lead would be insurmountable, so long as it is mathematically possible for someone from a losing position to win an election, it was incumbent on the Umpire NOT to declare a winner.
As regards the Osun election, the margin of victory which is about 353 is lower than the number of cancellations and could therefore not be definitive for a party to ask to be declared winner. This position is anchored in our laws.
Where there is over voting, as it happened in one Polling Unit in Ife North, Sec. 53 of the Electoral Act requires INEC to declare the result null and void, make no return on the election result and fix another date to conduct the election where the number of registered voters will make a difference to the outcome of the election. In Ife North, the total number of registered voters is exactly the same as the margin of lead in the election. How can INEC declare a winner under the law? Read Sec. 53 verbatim and see what it clearly provides
In fact, Sec. 53 (3) prohibits the Commission from declaring a winner for the election “until another poll has taken place in the affected area”.
Beyond over voting, election was disrupted in 6 other polling units. 3 in Orolu LGA with 947 registered voters, 2 in Ife South with 1,314 voters and 1 in Osogbo with 884 voters. If you add Ife North to it, there is a total of 3,498 voters. Meanwhile, the margin of lead is 353 votes. There can be no declaration of winner under the circumstances.
INEC has fixed Thursday 27th September 2018 for the re-run in 7 PUs across 4 LGAs and will then proceed to make a declaration. That is what the law says.
My focus is on the processes and not on parties or candidates. Votes are counting in our elections. That’s why we can a have a difference of 353 votes in a Governorship election involving 1.6m voters spread across 30 LGAs. The Commission showed no bias for the ruling party as some have alleged. Otherwise, there wouldn’t have been a margin of only 353 votes and even so in favour of the opposition candidate.
My take is that the Commission is being crucified for rightly being transparent. The Commission’s various moves to carry Nigerians along and to demystify elections in Nigeria is paying off. The reason why we are here today is because of the innovations that the Commission has put in place.
In Osun, anyone who was interested had the results which were due to the form EC60-E that is usually pasted on the walls and that allow the people to protect their votes.
Could anyone have envisaged this in 2011?I recall an incident where the late Justice Katsina-Alu went to his community to vote. While still on the queue the Iwu led INEC had announced the result of the elections. This really pissed off the late jurist. Only a mischievous rabble-rouser will not appreciate the gains being made in our elections.
Mahmood’s sins is simply that he accepted to serve under this president and for some, that is an unforgivable sin. But it is immaterial, Yakubu is on track and will not be distracted.
I love my party (PDP) but I must stand by truth and justice. Nothing less is demanded of me.
