Hottestgistnaija.com
>
>>
>> As the 2015 general election approaches, political parties in Ogun State are putting up their thinking cap in order to come up with the right combination for the gubernatorial election that will win the election for them. Party chieftains seem to agree that the senatorial districts of gubernatorial candidates presented by the political parties will play a significant role in determining the pattern of voting for such candidates.
>> In general terms, it will appear that the major parties are agreed that the 2015 guber race is between Ogun West Senatorial District (Yewa-Awori) and Ogun Central Senatorial District (Egba). This is clearly reflected on the quantity and qualities of aspirants jostling for the gubernatorial position from the two districts particularly in the major opposition party in Ogun State, the PDP where Ogun West has 3 aspirants. Ogun Central 9 and Ogun East only 1. The other serious opposition party, the SDP has only 1 gubernatorial aspirant from Ogun Central.
>> WHAT IS CURRENT ON GROUND IN THE STATE
>>
>> The incumbent governor in the state, Senator Ibikunle Amosun is from Ogun Central Senatorial District and it’s almost 100% sure that he will be the flag-bearer of the All Progressives Congress (APC) bearing any development beyond human control.
>> It is also a statement of fact that today not less than 60% of the resources of the sate is being deployed in Ogun Central senatorial district with Ogun East a distant second of about 25% and Ogun West coming far behind with about 15%.
>>
>> Today, in Ogun state, there is no doubt that the current administration led by Senator Ibikunle Amosun has completely changed the landscape of Ogun Central and ordinary Egba people are not only happy with this development but are ready to identify with Senator Amosun in his second term project.
>> The common saying on the streets of Egba today is that “tita riro laa kola, toba jina tan, oge nii da. Another, common saying in the political circle is that even Lisabi Agbongbo Akala who is seen as the hero of the Egbas can not defeat Senator Amosun in Egbaland today. It is therefore very likely that bearing any unforeseen development, the bulk of Egba vote in the 2015 election will be delivered for Senator Amosun and the APC. In essence, the APC seems to have settled its gubernatorial slot not only to the incumbent governor but also to the senatorial district where the party is strongest and bulk vote very likely.
>>
>> Clearly, the PDP is the party that has the capacity to give the incumbent governor, Senator Ibikunle Amosun and his party the APC any serious challenge in the coming general election . Most analysts and political watcher agree that the 2015 election in Ogun State is essentially between the PDP and the APC. Since it appears that the gubernatorial candidate for the APC is settled for Ogun Central, the PDP needs to do a critical SWOT analysis of its aspirants for the gubernatorial position vis a vis their senatorial districts and the level of bulk votes that such an aspirant can deliver from his district.
>> MAKING A CASE FOR OGUN WEST
>>
>>
>>
>> 1) Most Ogun West people believe that the current tenure being served by Senator Amosun was stolen from them through high wire political intrigues led by some powerful elements to install their own kinsman as the governor of the state.
>>
>> 2) Despite this widespread perception of stolen slot by Senator Amosun, Ogun West has benefited least from his government in terms of political appointment, projects execution and general patronage.
>>
>> Similarly, Ogun West is a good ground to harness massive votes for the PDP provided the right sub-ethnic sentiments is properly accommodated:
>>
>> A) The long years (38years) of non occupation of the governorship seat by somebody from Ogun West has created a groundswell of sentiments of marginalization of Ogun West people in the scheme of things. Ogun West people are therefore very thirsty for one of them to occupy the position and can be much more easily mobilized to vote massively for a popular gubernatorial candidate from the district.
>>
>> B) The various non-political stakeholders in Ogun West are organized through various associations like Yewa Awori Youths Agenda Forum (YAYAF), Ogun West Rebirth, Association of Clubs and Societies in Ogun West (ACASOW), Ogun West Professionals, Yewa Awori Coalition Movement (YACM) etc and are ready to work with a popular candidate from Ogun West to ensure victory at the polls.
>>
>> C) The massive vote from Ogun West will largely compensate for the envisaged deficit from Ogun Central while the Ogun East vote who traditionally are sympathetic to the Ogun West people will be the decider.
>>
>> D) Ogun west has the voters population to make this significant impact and overturn whatever lead Senator Amosun and the APC is likely to garner from Ogun Central. By the 2011 registration figures, Ogun West is second with 617,599 registered voters representing 33%.
>>
>> 5) If the votes from Ibara , Imala, Ilewo, Ishaga and other adjoining locations in Ogun Central who are of Yewa origin is added to the vote of Ogun West, it is obvious that the Yewa-Awori vote will be in majority. It is important to state that the traditional rulers of this towns above i.e Olubara of Ibara, Omala of Imala, Elewo of Ilewo and Olu of Ishaga though by government arrangement are in Egba Traditional Council, they are active members of Conference of Yewa Obas which clearly shows that they identify with their Yewa origin.
>>
>> CONCLUSION.
>> The above verifiable facts and figures clearly show that, the best approach to unseat Governor Ibikunle Amosun is to pick a popular candidate from Ogun West Senatorial District.
>> This same approach was used in 2003 when Otunba Gbenga Daniel from Remo (3 local governments), Ogun East was used to unseat Aremo Segun Osoba who was then the sitting Governor. Similarly, in 2007 when a strong attempt was made to unseat Otunba Gbenga Daniel, it was by somebody from a senatorial district different from that of the then incumbent Governor.
>> It is critical to state that should PDP pick its candidate from Ogun Central, the Ogun West people are likely to be left with no other option than to accept the various reproach by Sen. Amosun and negotiate with him for an arrangement towards 2019. Any new Gubernatorial candidate from Ogun Central will largely be seen as an attempt by the Egbas to spend 12 straight years in the governorship saddle of Ogun state and will seriously put the politicians in Ogun West at a great disadvantage when it comes to the issue of campaigning. All Governor Amosun and his team will have to do in such a circumstance is to deploy propaganda that he has reached an agreement with Ogun West leaders to hand over to an indigene of the district at the end of his second term in 2019.
>> In 2007, for the re-election of Otunba Gbenga Daniel, the same strategy was used which resulted in PDP wining massively in the Ogun West with little or no violence.
>>
>> In summary, for the PDP to win back Ogun State in 2015, the most viable and promising approach is a popular gubernatorial candidate from Ogun West Senatorial District who has verifiable proof of acceptance by his people with records of electoral value.
>>
>>
>> Iziaq Kunle SALAKO MBBS, MPH,
>> Former Commissioner for Health, Ogun State
