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•Valid Number of Registered Voters (post March 2014 CVR) – 1, 407, 222
•Gender Distribution of Voter Population: Male: 661,394 (47%); Female 745,828 (53%)
•Number of Registration Areas (Wards) – 332 •Number of Polling Units – 3, 010 •Number of Voting Points – 3, 379
This Article by LANRE ADEWOLE of Tribune 
periscopes the likely voting pattern in next weekend’s Osun State governorship election as well as factors and variables that will swing victory. He reports a photo-finish race.
The all-important Osun State governorship election is exactly a week away with no clear leading candidate in the race.
Many analysts and bookmakers are cautious about projecting a possible winner although the race has been instructively narrowed to the candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), incumbent Governor Rauf Aregbesola and his Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) challenger, Senator Iyiola Omisore. The projection and permutations are putting the Labour Party candidate, political warhorse, Alhaji Fatai Akinbade, at respectable third.
The race would have been predictable if permutations had not tumbled in the Ekiti State governorship election, in which almost all the unexpected happened and certain semblance in pre-election scenarios in the two neighbouring states has made many non-partisan bookmakers to be wary of direct predictions of the outcome of the Osun election, wherein the main challenger, Omisore, had also lost senatorial election to the candidate of the incumbent governor’s party, like Ekiti’s Ayodele Fayose who eventually trounced incumbent Kayode Fayemi in all the 16 local governments in Ekiti state.
Just like in Ekiti State, Osun people of all hues, without membership cards of any of the politician parties, are going to be fully involved in the voting, with their involvement expected to swing victory between Omisore and Aregbesola, though Akinbade, erstwhile PDP chairman in the state, has been talking of an upset. Though he is a tested political hand, it appears the battle for the soul of Osun State is structured by many factors to be a straight one between a PDP that is witnessing a resurgence and an APC battling to sustain relevance.
As brick-bats continue between APC and the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) over the issuance of Permanent Voters Card (PVCs) which, according to the electoral body, is a must for eligibility to vote, analysts are pointing at a possible scenario of parties in the race, already knowing their possible supporters and by implication, potential voters, wondering how the complaining political party arrived at the list of those it called its supporters that were allegedly denied the issuance of the PVCs as well as its definition of strongholds within the state.
Though the outcome of Ekiti governorship election made nonsense of membership numerical strength, supporters, sympathizers and strongholds’ permutations, many are quick to point out that APC is playing politics of political realities by fighting on behalf of certain sets of people in the state as well as certain areas and local governments, where it is certain large quantum of votes would come for its candidates, just as the party and Aregbesola may have given up on certain sets of voters in the state, who have openly sworn to send the governor back to his Lagos base.
osun-analysis1A lot of attention is expected to be on the Osun East Senatorial District where the two projected leading candidates hail from, with Aregbesola having the advantage of six local governments in Ijesaland with a total of 247,807 registered voters and Omisore with four local governments in Ifeland but with a slim majority of 266, 891 registered voters. While Omisore has the advantage of over 19,000 votes, Aregbesola has an advantage of constitutional provision of two-thirds majority. The struggle for votes is expected to be intense in the senatorial district because whoever wins it out of the two candidates would appear to have more home support than the other, with many variables and political actors expected to swing victory on the side of whoever will finally have it.
After the ruffling of relations between the APC and the Ooni of Ife, Oba Okunade Sijuwade, over a controversial comment by the national leader of the party, Senator Bola Tinubu, on traditional rulers in Yorubaland, Aregbesola may have to simply forget any royal support from the paramount ruler of Ifeland and put all his trust in Senator Babajide Omoworare and Diran Ayanbeku who recently dumped Omisore for him. But Ife has a history of political bonding which is always on display when its own are against outsiders. Indeed, it was one of the deciding blocs that gave victory to Chief Bisi Akande in 1999 and Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola in 2003 and 2007.
With one of its own at a touching distance of ruling the state, party affiliations may not count too much in the bloc clannish support expected to be thrown behind Omisore. Analysts are projecting a third of Omisore’s votes coming from his Ife backyard, with the political momentum in the state also clearly on his side. Analysts are contending that it is unlikely Aregbesola would get the required 25 per cent in three out of the four Ife local governments.
Despite the undisguised resolve of certain Ijesa elders and PDP leaders in Ijesaland to hurt Aregbesola badly in his backyard, Omisore too may run into a roadblock in four local governments in Ijesaland, namely, Ilesa East, Ilesa West, Obokun and Oriade but the believable support from a former member of the House of Representatives, Hon. Wole Oke for Omisore could hurt Aregbesola badly in Obokun and Oriade, the two local governments he represented as Ijesa North Federal Constituency for eight years in the lower chamber. For someone who lost the party ticket to Omisore gallantly, there is much for Oke to prove in the two local governments, if he wants to stand any chance of getting elected for any position from his base again. There is also a senatorial aspirant from Ilase in Obokun local government, retired Customs boss, Chief Francis Fadahunsi who has been a financial back-bone of Omisore’s campaign. Those on ground say he even has more to prove in terms of electoral-value than Oke.
Atakunmosa East and West could be a hard nut for the incumbent to crack. Former Labour leader, serial council chairman and current Ife/Ijesa senatorial district zonal chairman of PDP, Chief Joshua Oladipupo Ogunleye has held on to Atakumosa West like a leech since 1999. Not even the legendary campaigner and vote-sweeper, late Bola Ige could displace him in the days of Alliance for Democracy (AD) revolution. He won the council for the then All Peoples Party (APP) before moving to PDP with the council headquarters in Osu firmly in his pockets. He will confidently tell you he knows where the votes are in the local governments, when ably backed by his lieutenants like Iya Gbengbele, among others.
Current Sure-P coordinator in the state and former Commissioner for Works, Chief Bayo Faforiji, used to be the undisputed leader of Atakumosa East with headquarters in Iperindo, dusting the likes of the late Lere Adebayo, Bisi Akande’s former Commissioner for Finance, until the emergence of his protege, Sanya Omirin, a national commissioner in the Revenue Mobilisation and Fiscal Allocation Commission (RMFAC) and former council chairman, now the power-house of the council. Good news for Omisore: both politicians, Faforiji and Omirin, are working seriously for his victory.
Osogbo Local Government with highest number of registered voters, 110,670, and its sister council area, Olorunda, are believed to be solidly Aregbesola, but the high concentration of civil servants, teachers and pensioners who are majorly against him would worry bookmakers. The two local governments in Edeland with a total of 85,061 registered voters would be another battle ground.
The voters have a choice between having a deputy-governor son in Bello Adejare and a likely future senator in Isiaka Adeleke. If the last sallah celebration scenario in the town is anything to go by, the people would appear to have made their choice. While Adejare was reportedly seen with people milling around him at the general prayer ground, Adeleke was reportedly absent, allegedly citing an unfavourable security report that he might be attacked by his people.
Religion is expected to be a huge factor in the race, which many analysts would want to see in favour of the incumbent, considering the yet-to-be established claim that Muslim faithful are more in number in the state but the involvement of Akinbade could rob Aregbesola of bloc Muslim faithful votes, given the allegation of being a traditionalist being levelled against the governor who “claims to be simply trying to give all religions a voice and allow for a level-playing field.”
Despite the damage control of bringing renowned Christian leaders to the state and identifying with them in the open, Christian in the state are surely going to give voting the incumbent again a second thought, before so doing. Analysts are of the opinion that a large chunk of Christian votes could go to Omisore, not because he is seen as one of them but because the incumbent had behaved in the past as if he was against them.
Akinbade is expected to do very well in his Olaoluwa Local Government worth 25,524 registered voters, while the incumbent should have a good outing in Odo-Otin, and Ifelodun and a fighting chance in Ifedayo. Ila with 33,527 registered voters should ordinarily be a walkover for the incumbent, considering it as Bisi Akande’s home but news oozing from the end would not justify that. More of protest votes against Akande than issues with Aregbesola could hurt the incumbent but he is still expected to hew out a win, even if a narrow one.
osun-analysis2Indeed, local governments such as Ayedaade, Irewole, Isokan, Orolu, Ayedire, Boluwaduro, Boripe, Ife North and Ifedayo are sure battle grounds between the PDP, APC and, to some extent, Labour Party. Iwo may be unpredictable, though the incumbent and LP candidate should naturally feel at home there. However, a reported struggle not to become the stooge of a religious cabal, could give Omisore a dangerous in-road there.
One personality that would be central to the election is former Governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola. Apart from his extensive network of friends, associates and supporters in unusual places in the state, nearly all the candidates are connected to him one way or the other. Omisore was PDP senator when Oyinlola was governor and they worked together as friends, though the relationship is no longer chummy. Akinbade was the Okuku prince’s SSG for seven years, Segun Akinwusi of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) was his Head of Service for seven years and Niyi Owolade of Accord was his Attorney-General.
