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The dust so far raised both for and against the Lagos State Governor, Akinwunmi Ambode’s ‘nearly ruined re-election bid’ had almost left out other election portfolios and their attendant dynamics.
I used the qualifier ‘nearly ruined’ because in politics, nothing is as it is, even though it is about 98 per cent concluded that Ambode would not come back. But since all of this is about economic survival, it is only imperative to build safety into a few of the assumptions that are strategically marking the run up to the Lagos House.
Although I’d said in my last post on the Lagos race that it would be my final take on Ambode’s re-election, indeed, it remains so as this is merely a digression.
However, if the talk about the conditions allegedly handed Ambode are true, it is only dignifying he takes an exemplary bow and quietly walks away with whatever is left of his integrity intact, except of course, he doesn’t mind being a lame-duck governor.
I have no doubt in my mind that Asiwaju Bola Tinubu would not be lord over Lagos till the end of days. In fact, his reign as the ‘governor-emeritus’ of the state are counting down at a steady pace.
Ambode would probably have been the one to begin the cause of emancipation for Lagos, but his poor human relations, coupled with his arrogance, vindictive tendencies and lack of team work gave him up too early and so, it was only smart that the ‘master strategist’ took a compelling decision.
The outgoing governor’s case typifies the saying by Lord Acton, a British historian of the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries that “power corrupts, absolute power corrupts absolutely”.
If you are the thoughtful type, go back to how far Asiwaju had come in his leadership of South-west from the rear – from being the last man standing to craftily harnessing other parts of the zone and even helping to extend the reach of the party to other regions – the tide had since changed. And gradually, he has begun to lose the firm grip of the zone, meaning Lagos might be following too and soon. Nothing is cast in ‘iron’.
Look at it this way. He is no longer a factor in Ondo. The issues are public knowledge. Ekiti would not concede leadership of the state to him anymore. Forget the façade of ‘our oga’; the owners had taken back what is theirs. He knows too well than to move any closer to Ogun. Oyo can continue to play the ‘smiley diplomacy’; he understands the respect conceded to him is mutual and so, he too won’t dare to rock the boat. As it appears, Osun might be coming close from behind, before the hurricane finally berths in the state of Aquatic splendor in the foreseeable future.
Make no mistake, unlike his limited skills in the South-west geo-political zone and national politics, Asiwaju understands the science of Lagos politics like the back of his hand. I also know that his retirement season is inching pretty close and would be on no other account than his Darwinian style of leadership.
The conspiracy would be collective. He might have thought he had retired a certain class of politicians in 2015 with the choice of Ambode, there would be some resurgence soon and the natives of Lagos would play an active role in that movement. Their number won’t matter. He has been too unkind to them. Ambode, although not originally of Lagos, missed that opportunity. Life goes on regardless.
Having said that, it is crucial to bring up the race for the three senatorial districts in the state; it is the next big thing. Although the leader has said it would be direct primaries, the mere thought that the choice of candidates is already being tinkered with is disturbing. This clearly exposes Asiwaju’s insincerity about progressivism. He should have been honest with his position from start. Governor Ibikunle Amosun pulled it off in Ogun State without pretence.
The Senator representing Lagos West, the largest district in the state, Adeola Solomon, spent over two years of his time as a governorship hopeful in Ogun State. He invested hugely in a project that was a stillbirth ab initio and at the expense of Lagos West. And like the prodigal son, he was welcomed back into the state and literally handed the ticket, while asking other interested parties to back off, because Yayi, as he is called, deserves the privilege of first refusal.
Next year’s election would be Senator Oluremi Tinubu’s third term in the red chamber. No one dares challenge Yeye, so, it is a free ride for her in Lagos Central. And like Yayi, she too deserves the right of first refusal. In fact, there is no one to stifle here, because the idea to run against her must not even cross your mind in the first place.
Curiously, the same Oluremi once confided in some people that she was standing down from active politics to face her pastoral job. It appears she has not yet heard clearly from God and so, the senate it is!
The battle is however going to be in Lagos East. There appears to be a grand ploy to stop Senator Gbenga Ashafa and have in his place, one of Asiwaju’s foot soldiers and prominent member of the Mandate Group (the pepper dem gang), Hon. Bayo Osinowo, otherwise called pepper.
Straight to the point: the calculation behind pepper’s choice is to make sure no one competes with Oluremi over leadership in the senate in the ninth assembly. The only one who stands that chance is Ashafa. What of South-west in general? They seem to be leaving out that equation. Maybe when they get to the bridge!
Thus, anytime it was allegedly asked of Asiwaju by any interested party in Lagos East, sources claimed he would jocularly ask: ‘Do you really think you can defeat Ashafa in that place? Well, try if you can.’ But he did not say same in the case of the two others, genuinely exhibiting his biases and preferences.
Ironically, there is a groundswell of discontent against the choice of Osinowo, which has propelled some other candidates to show interest in the battle for Lagos East. “If pepper can indicate interest in the Senate, pepper, pepper of all people, haba, I too will come out,” once said an interested party.
The shock is, why sacrifice excellence and capacity on the altar of politics and yet, the leader is often celebrated as a great ‘talent-hunter’? Remember how Asiwaju rested the political career of Ashafa’s immediate predecessor, Senator Olorunimbe Mamora? No wahala!
Although Ashafa has indicated interest in another term like the two others by procuring and submitting his forms, truth is he up against Asiwaju and not Pepper. How he levels this mountain before him would be dependent on his negotiating skills, which is doable, after all. But one thing is certain, the battle for the three Lagos Senate seats would be keen, because anything can still happen.
