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Culled from Guardian
As Campaigns Shift To Grassroots, House To House
LESS than two weeks to the June 21 governorship election in Ekiti State, the political temperature is charged with parties and their candidates engaging in last minute scheming to outwit one another.
Analysts say this election will not only determine the future of the state, but will have implication on the continued existence of some of the major political parties in Ekiti State.
Though, 18 political parties fielded candidates for the election, but only three look serious to be contesting for Oke Bareke Government House, and the next few days will see some of the candidates stepping down for the three frontline candidates.
The election now seems difficult to predict. The candidates and their parties have campaigned vigorously and cajoled voters with juicy promises. They went a step further to distribute rice, crash helmets, clothing materials, kerosene and kitchen utensils to their supporters and rural dwellers.
Incumbent governor, Dr Kayode Fayemi of the APC is not new to the game, while former governor Ayo Fayose of the PDP could also be described as a veteran in Ekiti politics. The same could not be said of the Labour Party (LP) candidate, Opeyemi Bamidele, though he contested and won election to the House of Representatives in 2011 under the platform of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN).
LP remains a new party in the state. There is even a common saying in town that while it may be difficult to predict the party that will come first or second, that of the third position is crystal clear, even though anything may happen in politics.
Observers believe the election could be a straight battle between the APC and the PDP. Both parties had won elections in the state and governed for about seven and half years each. They have formidable structures in all the 16 local councils and 177 wards in the state. Indeed, a critical look at their spread and strength shows that both APC and PDP will contest all the 2,195 polling units.
For the LP, it is seen as a third force, working on a likely strategy to decimate the APC, to pave way for the PDP victory. There had been allegation of an alliance between PDP and LP and in the pact, Bamidele had been penciled down for the Speaker of the House of Representative if PDP wins the election, suggesting that Bamidele might decamp to PDP and re-contest for the House of Representatives. But the leadership of the LP had vigorously denied any ‘unholy alliance’ with the PDP and described the allegation as antics of the ruling APC that wants to stay in power at all cost.
They said Bamidele is in the contest to defeat both the APC and the PDP and occupy the Government House.
Having campaigned round all the councils and wards, the three political parties are now engaged in house to house campaign, relying on their supporters and party members to continue with grassroots mobilisation. This last stage is a defining moment that places responsibilities on the local leaders and political leaders whose strength and weaknesses will decide their ability to deliver their constituencies to their various political parties.
Ado
THE largest number of voters is concentrated in the town and Ado Ekiti votes decide the party that governs the state. But the transformation of Ado Ekiti from an “ancient town” to a modern city laid with optic fibre cables that digitalized the town, coupled with massive road constructions and provision of streetlights have endeared the residents of the state capital to Governor Kayode Fayemi. But as a state capital, people expect such attention from the government and politicians have given different analysis to projects executed in the town.
Fayose’s support in the town is also not in doubt, he claimed to be the architect of modern Ekiti by constructing the first dual carriageway in the capital town and laid the foundation, which other administrations have built upon. Fayose is not just equally at home in Ado Ekiti, he is certainly not a push over.
Ado Ekiti indigenes such as Senator Babafemi Ojudu, the deputy governor, Prof Modupe Adelabu, Bisi Egbeyemi, Sunday Ibitoye, Tope Olanipekun, Mrs Omotunde Fajuyi are expected to lead the struggle to deliver the town for the APC. They will certainly meet stiff opposition from the PDP stalwarts like Chief Ojo Falegan, Adeyemi Orilele, Senator Bode Ola, Taiye Fasuba, former deputy governor Sikiru Lawal and Tosin Aluko.
The influence of Bamidele also resonates high in Ado Ekiti, as many of the indigenes benefitted from his empowerment programmes as their representative in the National Assembly. Besides, the influence of Chief Remi Oguntuase will also boost the chances of LP in the local council.
But the large concentration of the civil servants, teachers, political office holders and non-indigenes will play a significant role in deciding the party that wins election in the capital city that has almost thirty five percent of the total votes expected from all the 16 local councils.
Ikere
IKERE is another town that has the second largest concentration of voters. It is less than ten kilometers to Ado Ekiti. All the three major parties for the election had organised various Mega rallies in the town. This one-town local government is the home of PDP big wigs such as former governorship aspirant, Chief Bisi Omoyemi, a former member of the Board of Trustees of the PDP, Dayo Okondo, Chief Bisi Aloba and the running mate to Fayose, Dr Olusola Olubumi Eleka. But the recent defection of the former deputy governor of the state, Surveyor Abiodun Aluko to the APC is a big minus for the PDP. Aluko is expected to join hands with former governor of old Ondo State, Evangelist Bamidele Olomilua, Hon. Funmiyi Afuye, Bolu Akomolafe, and Babade Kayode to do the magic for the APC.
But the story of Olumilua’s family is a classic case that makes many to doubt the loyalty of the former governor to the APC. While his son, Muyiwa is a Special Adviser to Fayemi, one of his wives is a chieftain of the Labour Party, while his daughter Mrs. Olumilua-Olusanya is the running mate of Kole Ajayi, the governorship candidate of Accord Party.
Analysts believe the battle for Ikere will make that of Ido-Osi in 2009 a child’s play, as the PDP and APC are battle ready to show their strength.
Irepodun-Ifelodun
ELECTION here will be keenly contested. It would be interesting to know how Fayose, Bamidele and former governor, Niyi Adebayo will share votes in this council. Adebayo and Bamidele hail from Iyin-Ekiti, while Fayose is from Afao Ekiti. The margin for any party that wins might be inconsequential as there are other political heavy weights in the council that will certainly deliver their wards and towns to their parties. Also in the council are APC chieftains, Taiwo Olatunbosun, Mrs Eniola Bello, Mojeed Jamiu and his brother Hakeem from Igbimo, Churchill Adedipe, Ayodeji Odu and Deji Adesokan, while Elder Peter Ajayi, Ms Bola Olatunde Bruce and Martins Ibikunle might boost chances of LP.
The state secretary of the PDP, Dr Tope Aluko, Dipo Anisulowo and Ambassador Toye Olofintuyi will complement Fayose’s influence in the council to sustain their loyalists and have their share of the votes.
Ekiti South West
This is a local government that boasts of top politicians such as Ambassador Dare Bejide, Senator Bode Olowporoku and Chief Idowu Odeyemi of the PDP, but Chief of Staff to Governor Fayemi, Yemi Adaramodu, as well as activist and legal luminary, Femi Falana (SAN), will check them. Falana, contested the governorship poll in 2003 and lost to Fayose, but was able to deliver the House of Assembly seat in the area to his National Conscience Party (NCP). Though he claims to be apolitical now, but many see him as a sympathiser of the APC. Also, grassroots mobilsers like Tope Agidi, Hon. Ife Arowosoge, Richard Apolola and Modupe Ogundipe will give massive votes to APC in the council.
Bejide of the PDP would have given the APC a run, but his efforts to secure the party ticket was truncated, just as he lost bid to become Fayose’s running mate. But Abiola Olowokere and Femi Oloniyo will do their best to get some votes for the LP.
Oye
FAYEMI is from Isan Ekiti in Oye Local Government. He is expected to enjoy homeboy advantage. So also the Secretary to the State Government, Alhaji Ganiyu Owolabi and the Director General of Fayemi Campaign Organisation, Hon. Bimbo Daramola will lead the onslaught to get all votes available for the APC. This is also the territory of Senator Ayo Arise, a prominent PDP chieftain with the capacity to deliver. He fought Fayemi hands down to ensure that the main campus of Federal University was sited in the town, even before then, Arise controlled votes in Oye town. Until last week, Arise was expected to join forces with other PDP chieftains in the local council, like Dr Jimi Oke, Chief Segun Olanrewaju and Otunba Davis to get substantial votes for the PDP, but he is believed to have been disappointed over ministerial appointment and might have developed cold feat to commit himself to the PDP project.
Though the LP Chairman, Akin Omole is from the council, he is not seen as a threat that can win more than his polling booth.
Ise/Orun
HERE is the home of PDP leaders, such as, Prince Dayo Adeyeye, Bimbo Owolabi, Ropo Ogunbolude, Owoseni Ajayi, Dare Omotosho, Chief Afolabi Ojuawo and former member of the House of Representatives, Titilayo Akindahunsi among others. APC’s presence here is dwarfed by the PDP. The influence of the Commissioner for Information and Orientation, Tayo Ekundayo may not change the dominance of the PDP in this local council, more so, that Adeyeye has been nominated by President Jonathan for ministerial appointment. Adeyeye is not just a Prince of the town but a political leader loved by his people. The town is still in festive mood over his nomination.
Efon
BARRING last minutes change of political calculation, the council is a stronghold of the LP, though APC and PDP also have some influence in some major towns in the council. But LP is expected to perform well judging by the popularity of Bamidele in Ekiti Central Senatorial District. But APC is also looking good in this council to have substantial votes.
Ekiti West
THIS local council with headquarters in Aramoko consists of seven communities. Aramoko has been an APC dominated town but the popularity of Bamidele in Ekiti Central Senatorial District may also upset APC’s dominance in the town. The presence of political heavy weights like, Senator Clement Awoyelu, Akin Osuntokun, Tope Ademiluyi and Hon. kehinde Odebunmi of the PDP will give a strong challenge to the chairman of the APC, Chief Jide Awe, in-law of APC National Leader, Bola Tinubu, Hon. Oyetunde Ojo, and the Attorney General and Commissioner for Justice, Wale Fapohunda who will want to maintain the status quo.
Ijero
THIS is an APC stronghold, but the presence of the former minister of the Police Affairs, Navy Capt. Caleb Olubolade may likely boost the strength of the PDP to give the ruling party a big challenge here. Also, PDP chieftains, Kayode Alufa and Yemi Arogundare will want to upturn the table against APC if Hon. Wunmi Ogunlola and other stalwarts of the party fail to rise to occasion.
Ikole
FORMER acting South-West vice chairman of the PDP, Chief Ishola Filani, the current state chairman of the PDP, Chief Makanjuola Ogundipe are among other PDP top shots that will have influence on this election, but the APC may have an edge here as the people of the area would want to repay Fayemi and his party for his support during the controversy over where to locate the Federal University in the state. Arise, as a serving senator then, wanted the varsity in his hometown of Oye-Ekiti, where the institution was eventually located. Fayemi preferred Ikole-Ekiti, which in the end got two faculties located there.
Ilejemeje
LIKE her neighbour, Oye, APC will benefit from the influence of the incumbent governor, Fayemi, hailing from the area. The PDP may find it difficult making a head way here, as the sentiment of the governor being from Ekiti North Senatorial District will play a big role.
Moba
THIS is an APC stronghold since the advent of the current democratic dispensation. It has always voted the party. In the 2007 general elections, it produced Saliu Adeoti, the late deputy speaker of Ekiti State House of Assembly and he was a strong backer of Fayemi. There are no indications that the tide has changed and the PDP may find it difficult to excel here, neither the LP that seems not to have any strong presence in the council.
Gboyin
THIS is the local government of former Senator Gbenga Aluko, former acting governor Tunji Odeyemi, Chief Ropo Adesanya among others of the PDP. The party is not expected to have difficulties here. Aluko won a seat into the Senate in 1999 when the whole of Southwest was dominated by the AD. He was then the only PDP senator in the region.
The onslaught of the APC will be led by the Speaker of the House of Assembly, Adewale Omirin, member, House of Representatives, Bamidele Faparuyi, Paul Omotosho and Paul Abegunde. But Senator Aluko, who is believed to hold the ace, is still being doubted if he is ready to reconcile his differences with Fayose. Aluko has kept a distance and has kept many people guessing of his standing. But June 21 will decide where he belongs.
Emure
THE killing of the 33-year old Foluso Ogundare, a supporter of Bamidele of the LP by people suspected to be members of the APC has negatively affected the fortune of the ruling party here. It is between PDP and LP with the PDP probably having an edge. Ogundare was buried on Thursday, with Bamidele leading the funeral procession. The town is still in a mourning mood and LP has worked on the emotions to win sympathy. Nobody will be surprised if LP wins Emure, but sentiment and emotion, at times do not win election.
Ekiti South East
FORMER governor Biodun Olujimi and former Speaker, Femi Bamishile have great influence on the political scene in this council, with its headquarters at Omuo. But Bamishile, who is also the deputy chairman of the PDP is believed to be on his way out following the refusal of Fayose to appoint him as his running mate. Bamishile claimed that Fayose had promised him and reneged. He has been seen romancing with both the leadership of the LP and APC, while Olujimi remains a strong force capable of making the PDP smiles in this council.
Ido/Osi
THE recent defection of former governor Segun Oni has altered the political calculation of this local government. It used to be traditionally the home of the PDP. Even in 1999, when the Alliance for Democracy (AD) dominated the political scene of the state, the PDP still produced a member in the House of Assembly in the person of Lanre Fayemi from Ifaki-Ekiti, and now the only member of the PDP in the House of Assembly, Mrs. Oriniowo Olubunmi Anike is from the council. With Oni leading others like Senator Olu Adetunmbi, Senator Femi Aborishade and Babatunde Odetola, APC is looking good to win convincingly, no matter the threat from Prof Tunde Adeniran, Segun Ilori and Femi Akinyemi of the PDP. But the LP chieftain, Akin Olayisade has vowed to deliver the council to his party and that remains to be seen.
* Written by Muyiwa Adeyemi (Head South West Bureau Ado Ekiti)
